Nomogram to predict the risk and survival of synchronous bone metastasis in colorectal cancer: a population-based real-world analysis

Colorectal Cancer

Han L, et al. Int J Colorectal Dis 2020.


PURPOSE: Bone metastasis (BM) can obviously affect the quality of life of patients in colorectal cancer (CRC), and the whole management of patients with BM would be attractive in current clinical practice.

METHODS: A total of 52,859 patients during 2010-2015 were collected from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. After propensity score matching (PSM), cancer-specific survival (CCS) and overall survival (OS) with BM were adopted to assess survival probability difference. Logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for BM; COX proportion hazard regression was applied to explore prognosticators for OS in patients with BM. Subsequently, nomograms were constructed and receiver operating curves (ROCs) were used to confirm the validation of nomogram.

RESULTS: Three hundred and forty-two (0.65%) patients were diagnosed with synchronous BM. After PSM, 16 variables were balanced. Tumor site, histology, grade, T stage, N stage, CEA, radiochemotherapy, surgery, and liver/lung/brain metastases were associated with BM, and histology, grade, T stage, N stage, CEA, chemotherapy, surgery, and liver/lung metastases were prognosticators for BM survival. Nomograms were applied and the ROC curve proved the predictive effects.

CONCLUSION: CRC patients with BM have worse real-world survival. Nomogram can predict incidence of BM in CRC patients and survival among patients with BM.